Proposed Changes to Settlement (ILR): What's Happening and What It Means For You
- Burcu Köroğlu
- 1 day ago
- 8 min read
If you are living in the UK on a visa and working toward Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR), you have probably heard the rules are changing. This guide explains what has been proposed, where things stand now, and what recent political developments, including a new Prime Minister, mean for your future.
These are proposals. They are not yet law. But they matter, and understanding them helps you prepare.
Where This Started
In May 2025, White Paper was published. November 2025, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood announced a significant overhaul of the UK’s settlement system. The government launched a consultation on “earned settlement,” which closed in February 2026 and received over 200,000 responses.
The core idea: settlement should be earned through contribution, not granted simply after a period of lawful residence.
Who Would Be Affected?
The proposals are retroactive. This means they are expected to affect foreign nationals currently in the UK who do not yet have ILR, including those with pending ILR applications.
Work Rights Centre analysis of Home Office data estimates that upwards of two million people could be negatively affected, including around half a million children.
Groups the government has said will NOT be affected:
People who already have ILR or settled status (they will not lose it)
People with BN(O) visas (still qualify after 5 years)
Parents, partners, and children of British citizens on family visas (still 5 years)
People with Pre-Settled Status under the EU Settlement Scheme (protected by the Withdrawal Agreement)
It remains unclear whether other family visa holders, such as relatives of people with ILR, would be affected.
The New Core Requirements
Under the proposals, most people seeking settlement would need to meet two new core requirements:
1. Higher English language standard
The requirement would rise from B1 (roughly GCSE level) to B2 (roughly A-level level). This was not part of the consultation.
2. Work and tax history
Applicants would need to show earned income and paid tax, with a proposed minimum of £12,570 per year for a duration yet to be finalised.
There may be exceptions, for example for native English speakers or those unable to work due to age or disability. This is not yet confirmed.
The “Earned Settlement” Model Explained
Currently, most people can apply for settlement after 5 years if they meet their route’s requirements.
The proposed model changes this in two major ways.
First: it increases the baseline qualifying period from 5 years to 10 years.
Second: it introduces factors that can reduce or extend that period, potentially up to 30 years.
Factors that could reduce your wait:
High income (higher earners wait less; £50,270 for 3 years could mean minus 5 years, £125,140 could mean minus 7 years)
Advanced English (C1 or above, minus 1 year)
Accredited volunteering (minus 3-5 years)
Certain public service roles such as the NHS (minus 5 years)
Global Talent or Innovator Founder workers with 3 years’ continuous residence (minus 7 years)
Factors that could extend your wait:
Claiming public funds for less than 12 months (plus 5 years)
Claiming public funds for more than 12 months (plus 10 years)
Entering illegally, on a visit visa, or overstaying by more than 6 months (plus up to 20 years)
Migrant care workers and Skilled Workers in middle-skilled occupations have been singled out with a proposed baseline of 15 years.
Where multiple factors apply, the government proposes taking the single strongest factor from each category and trading them off to reach a final figure.
What This Could Look Like In Practice
Someone earning £50,270 for the three years before applying could reduce their wait by 5 years. Accredited volunteering might reduce it by 3-5 years. Five years in a specified public service role could mean a 5-year reduction.
On the other hand, someone who claimed benefits, even briefly, could face an additional 5-10 years. Someone who entered on a visitor visa could face an extra 20 years, potentially reaching a 30-year route to settlement.
The Political Picture: A New Prime Minister
This is where 2026 changed everything.
Starmer’s Resignation and Burnham’s Rise
Sir Keir Starmer announced his resignation as Prime Minister in June 2026. Andy Burnham, the former Manchester Mayor who won the Makerfield by-election, succeeded him and became Prime Minister on 20 July 2026.
Importantly, Shabana Mahmood remained as Home Secretary. This is significant, because she is the architect of the earned settlement proposals. Her continuation suggests the broad direction of reform is likely to persist, even under new leadership.
Where Does Burnham Stand?
Burnham’s position deserves careful reading, because it has shifted over time.
What he supports: Burnham has said he agrees with the “broad thrust” of the plan. He backed the Immigration and Asylum Bill at its Second Reading, has pledged to expand immigration detention, and has spoken about restoring “a sense of order” on immigration. He has confirmed he does not intend to water down Mahmood’s reforms wholesale.
Where he has shown concern: Burnham has expressed unease about the impact of retrospective changes on people who have already made long-term plans. Reports suggest he may be open to softening the ILR elements, potentially allowing people to settle on the original timeline while withholding certain benefits for a period. This closely mirrors what the House of Lords proposed (see below).
What he no longer supports: Burnham previously called for an end to No Recourse to Public Funds (NRPF), but he is no longer pushing to scrap it.
Important: Becoming Prime Minister did not, by itself, change any Immigration Rules. Current rules and Home Office guidance continue to apply until formal changes are published.
Adding to the pressure, nearly 80 Labour MPs wrote to Burnham urging him to drop the plan to apply stricter settlement rules to people already in the UK, calling the changes “anathema to who we are, what we stand for and how we should do politics.” Some are pushing the new government to “review and refresh” the proposals.
What the House of Lords Actually Proposed
The House of Lords Justice and Home Affairs Committee conducted an inquiry into settlement, citizenship, and integration, and its conclusions carry real weight.
The Committee warned that applying longer qualifying periods to people already in the UK would be “manifestly unfair” and may be unlawful, restating the constitutional principle that law should generally be prospective, not retrospective.
But the Lords went further than criticism. They proposed a concrete alternative:
Grant ILR at 5 years, but keep people subject to No Recourse to Public Funds conditions until they reach 10 years’ residence and/or citizenship.
The logic is simple. The government’s stated concern is the fiscal cost of giving settled migrants immediate access to benefits. The Lords’ answer: address that fiscal concern directly through welfare rules, rather than by delaying settlement itself. This separates two issues the government had bundled together, giving people the security of settlement while managing public spending.
The Committee also noted the government had failed to provide an impact assessment for its proposals.
The 10 Transitional Options Parliament Wants Considered
Alongside the Lords report, the Skilled Worker Justice Alliance (SWJA) published a detailed analysis mapping ten different ways the government could protect people already in the UK, rather than imposing blanket retrospective extension.
In summary, these options include:
Full grandfathering - those who arrived before a set date (SWJA suggests before 11 April 2024) finish under 5-year rules
Cut-off dates - new rules apply only from a defined point, respecting fair notice
Stage-based protection - the closer you are to completion, the more protection you get
Capped extension - any additional wait is limited (say 12-24 months), avoiding a cliff edge
Transitional credits - years already completed count toward the new total
Protected interim status - stable status after year 5 without immediate ILR
Separating welfare from settlement - the Lords’ own recommendation
Dependant and child safeguards - preventing children from being stranded or aged out
Fee and IHS mitigation - no repeated costs for state-created delay
Targeted cohort approach - stricter rules only for specific groups, not everyone
The central argument: if the government rejects all ten and imposes blanket retrospective extension, it must publicly justify why each fairer alternative won’t work. Weak justification invites judicial review.
What Children’s Charities Have Said
One of the most serious areas of concern involves children.
A coalition of children’s charities, coordinated by Coram, wrote to the Home Secretary about the impact on children.
Their concerns draw on analysis by the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) and Landman Economics, commissioned by the No Recourse to Public Funds Partnership. That analysis estimated the earned settlement proposals could affect over 300,000 children already living in the UK and prolong poverty for up to 90,000 children of migrant workers by 2029.
The charities pointed out that most affected families came to the UK understanding they were on a 5-year route. Extending this to 10, 15, or even 30 years, while many migrant families are excluded from public funds, risks pushing children into prolonged poverty.
The charities welcomed the Home Secretary’s earlier comment that there would need to be “bespoke routes for children,” and are calling for existing private life rules for children to be protected.
What Is Expected in Autumn 2026?
The government has indicated that proposed rules will be published later in autumn 2026.
When they arrive, they should clarify several open questions:
Whether transitional arrangements will protect people already in the UK
The exact minimum income threshold and duration
Which groups qualify for exemptions
How children and vulnerable groups will be protected
Whether the Burnham government adopts the Lords’ “settle at 5 years, restrict benefits” model
Until then, much remains uncertain. What we do know is that significant political and legal pressure is pushing against the harshest elements, particularly retrospective application and the impact on children.
How To Prepare
While nothing is confirmed, there are sensible steps you can take:
If you are already eligible for ILR: Consider applying now, before any changes take effect. Waiting carries risk, as transitional protections are not guaranteed.
Improve your English: If the B2 requirement comes in, being prepared helps.
Keep clear records: Employment history, tax records, and evidence of continuous residence will matter under any contribution-based system.
Document your circumstances: If you are a family with children, or in a group that may receive transitional protection, keep evidence of your ties to the UK.
Get professional advice: Every situation is different. Understanding where you stand under current rules, and what may change, is worth the investment.
In Summary:
The proposed settlement changes represent the biggest reform to ILR in decades. But they are not yet law, and the political picture is far from settled.
The House of Lords has called retrospective application “manifestly unfair” and offered a workable alternative. Children’s charities have warned up to 90,000 children could be kept in poverty. Nearly 80 MPs have pushed back. A new Prime Minister may reshape the approach, though his Home Secretary, and her reforms, remain in place.
The autumn 2026 rules will tell us much more. Until then, if you are affected, the most important thing you can do is understand your position and prepare, rather than wait and hope.
Get Advice From Point B Legal
If you are concerned about how the proposed settlement changes could affect you, we can help you understand your options under the current rules and prepare for what may come.
Burcu Koroglu
Managing Director & Immigration Specialist at Level 3 (Highest Level)
Former UKVI Officer in Assessment and Verification
📱 WhatsApp: +44 07340799913
Disclaimer: This article provides general information about proposed changes to settlement. It is not legal advice, and the proposals described are not yet law. Immigration law changes frequently and individual circumstances vary. For advice specific to your situation, consult a qualified immigration adviser. Point B Legal is authorised and regulated by the Immigration Advice Authority at Level 3.
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